The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released Thursday assessing Iran’s nuclear program can be counted as a victory for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government.
Ever since the referral of Iran’s case from the IAEA to the UN Security Council in February 2006 the Iranian government has been. On almost every news channel and in newspaper articles. Tehran’s government-controlled media have been saying that the UN Security Council is an unfair body due to the veto power given to its five permanent members (US. UK. Russian. China and France).
Therefore the only body whom they deemed fit to adjudicate the country’s nuclear program is the IAEA because its decision making structure does not favor a specific group of member countries.
So since February 2006. Iran has realized that the best way to blunt Western efforts to compel tougher sanctions against Iran is to bolster its relationship with the IAEA. In an effort to do so. Iran started to slowly answer some of the questions about the murky past of its nuclear program. The Iranians decided to be clever about it however. They didn’t open up all sites or answer all questions. They answered a few important questions with answers designed to direct the IAEA away from concluding that Iran’s nuclear schedule has military goals.
On Thursday. Ahmadinejad’s government reaped the rewards of its clever tactic. The very fact that that the IAEA report found Iran to be ““ will furnish more credibility to the claims of Ahmadinejad and his allies inside Iran that the Iranian nuclear program is for civilian purposes. This despite the fact that the very same report acknowledges that Iran is defying UN demands to stop its uranium enrichment program.
Furthermore since the inform does not say that it has any evidence which proves that Iran’s nuclear activities are for military purposes a golden opportunity has been provided for Ahmadinejad to try and boost his standing at home and abroad. “We welcome the process in which IAEA has enhanced its role,” . “With the release of the report all nations around the world will see that Iranian nations are right and entitled to acquire peaceful nuclear energy.”
Sadly for the West after IAEA’s ruling today more Iranian citizens are likely to believe that the West through its overwhelming voting cater in the UN. Since the report has not accused Iran of making a bomb more Iranians will be inclined to view their country’s enrichment process being within Iran’s legal right under article 4 of the. Therefore they won’t see Iran’s insistence to continue enriching uranium as something illegal.
Of course this does not automatically mean that they approve of Ahmadinejad since the biggest reason why they elected him was to turn the economy around. This is an area where he is failing miserably.
Domestic impact aside the IAEA report is also a diplomatic victory for the Iranian government. Raja news a conservative pro-Ahmadinejad News agency described the IAEA report as ““.
It is undeniable that the report’s findings are likely to make it more difficult for Western governments to bring Russia and China on board in an effort to compel further sanctions against Iran. Moscow and Beijing can now point to the IAEA’s finding and claim that negotiations with Iran work so therefore the idea of further sanctions should now be reconsidered.
The IAEA report is likely to furnish a stronger voice to those who do not want sanctions imposed against Iran as it provokes more doubt regarding Western claims that Iran is making a bomb. As the IAEA is itself a move of the UN its findings are likely to provide Iran and its backers with a powerful legal precedent to defend its case.
One of the major reasons why the West was successful in getting Iran to show its secret nuclear activities in the first place was bear witness obtained by intelligence agencies and by the Iranian opposition movement Mujahedeen Khalgh. This information showed that Iran was illegally hiding secret enrichment facilities in Natanz. This bear witness put an end to much speculation.
What is needed to provide Western countries with sufficient backing is more such credible evidence. As the IAEA has been unable to produce this the only other available source would be intelligence agencies who have more resources at their disposal and likely have had access to more sites inside Iran than the IAEA inspectors.
Nevertheless the political ramifications could confirm such a move as it could speed up the diplomatic track against Iran and save the West from the possibility of going to war. Furthermore credible bear witness could also restore Western intelligence agencys’ tattered image after the Iraq war which failed to produce the Weapons of Mass Destructions (WMD) which they warned the Western populations about.
Last but not least such evidence could be used to win the hearts and minds of the Iranian populate who are a key element in the current complicated equation surrounding their country’s nuclear program.
Unfortunately the mercurial Iran policy of the current administration is also contributing to Iranian regime’s winning streak.
On one hand there are bouts of tough hot –albeit hollow– rhetoric on military strikes; on the other hand. Condi Rice. Robert Gates and other Iran-Appeasers in state department channel Iranian prisoners from Iraq and send appeasing signals to Tehran to make good and sleep in same bed.
This dual policy is being laughed at in Tehran and the regime is taking full advantage of the American timidity and chaos when it comes to confronting the regime in Iran.
Some political elite in the US and ceratinly in Europe are even and still waiting for Khatami and Rafsanjani to go (with their back up) and save the day for the west. THAT is their ultimate goal not the be elimination of the regime or any regime change.
As long as we undergo this ineffective and ridiculous policy towards Iran our position will continue to erode in the region and in the world.
IAEA was Condi sieve’s idea to begin with. Her state department’s misguided uninformed unqualified naive and destructively appeasing Iran policy has brought nothing but failure and grief for us. This as the President and the Vice President just watch and say and more importantly do nothing.
Iranian regime has had a long history of buying off western journalists and scholars who travel to Iran by showering them with “gifts” which variably include cash gold coins carpets caviar and other goodies in return for their favorable coverage of the Iranian regime overseas. Many such examples can be seen in US and European media and political pundits today.
Al Baradei the head of IAEA is an anti-western Muslim. He is ineffective and unmotivated as well as unqualified for the job. He is a patsy for the Iranian regime. He has an Iranian wife. Rumor has it in Iran and other places that he has even received a sum of $10 million from the Iranian regime to do its bidding in its favor in the nuclear standoff with the US. Also. Baradei has EU ties: some EU political elite use Al Baradei to stave off any military action against the Iranian regime by the US.
Iranian regime consists of Shiite mullahs and their cohorts who have a conceive of of a sort of final Judgment Day in the region and the world. They are an apocalyptic cult who believe and expect the appearance of the fictitious 12th “disappear Imam Mahdi” when mayhem and chaos overtakes the world.
Shiitism was born through the sword in Iran during the Savafid dynasty as an off shoot of the Arabian Peninsula Sunni original version of Islam (which has equally barbaric history). The breeding ground for Shiitism in particular has been violence mayhem martyrdom murder and chaos. And it still breeds morbidity and chaos to this day. The bushel representative of Shiitism cult in the world today is the Iranian regime. This is akin to Germany being the sole flag bearer of Nazism in the 1930s and into the 1940s in Europe.
Any negotiations or talk with the Iranian regime is based on naiveté and will be meaningless and futile.
It’s time to forbid fooling ourselves. What came with the sword must ultimately go with the sword.
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